TransUnion released its annual forecasts today on consumer credit, which indicate that national mortgage loan delinquencies (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) will decline to about 5% by the end of 2012 from just under 6% at the conclusion of 2011. After six consecutive quarterly declines between Q4 2009 and Q2 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquencies are expected to rise through Q1 2012, peaking at 6.02%. TransUnion forecasts mortgage delinquencies, a statistic generally considered a precursor to foreclosure, to decline for the last three quarters of 2012.

“Although house prices and unemployment will likely face continued pressure next year, this forecast calls for gradual improvements in the second half of 2012 to other key variables, like improving credit quality of new originations, consumer confidence and GDP, that will positively influence homeowners’ ability and willingness to pay their mortgages,” said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. housing in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “If things go as expected, there are no additional negative shocks to the U.S. economy and the average borrower’s situation, mortgage delinquencies could fall as much as 16% in 2012 compared to 2011.”

The expected mortgage delinquency decline in 2012 would follow recent yearly trends, including an expected 7% decrease by the end of this year and a 7% reduction in 2010. This is in contrast to more than 50% year-over-year increases between 2006 and 2009.

TransUnion is projecting 2012 declines in mortgage delinquencies for 38 states with the largest percentage declines expected in Arizona (-46.25%), Wisconsin (-45.52%) and Colorado (-40.34%). Twelve states and the District of Columbia are expected to see increases.

Credit Cards

Credit card delinquency rates (the ratio of bankcard borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their credit cards) reached their lowest levels in 17 years during the second quarter of 2011 (0.60%) and TransUnion expects them to remain relatively low in 2012, decreasing approximately 7% from 0.74% in Q4 2011 to 0.69% in Q4 2012.

“Credit card delinquencies are expected to remain fairly steady in 2012 ranging between 0.69% and 0.76% — levels far below those typically observed in the last 15 years,” said Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “In today’s uncertain economy, consumers have found that credit cards are among their most valued assets due to the flexibility they provide. As a result, consumers have made a concerted effort to make on-time payments and maintain relatively low balances. In fact, credit card debt per borrower in the third quarter of 2011 stood at $4,762, approximately $1,000 less than the second quarter of 2009, the quarter in which the recession ended.”

Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia are projected to see credit card delinquency declines in 2012 with only 11 experiencing increases. States expected to see the largest credit card delinquency declines in 2012 include Delaware (-30.74%), Oklahoma (-23.74%) and California (-22.97%). The largest increases are expected in Connecticut (14.87%), Missouri (12.46%) and Louisiana (10.11%).

TransUnion’s forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates and real estate values. The forecasts would change if there are unanticipated shocks to the global economy affecting recovery in the housing market, or if home prices fall more than expected.

The most current mortgage and credit card delinquency data for the nation and every state can be found at www.transunion.com/trenddata.

TransUnion’s Trend Data database TransUnion’s Trend Data is a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion’s national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels. For the purpose of this analysis, the term “credit card” refers to those issued by banks.

As a global leader in information and risk management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering high quality data, and integrating advanced analytics and enhanced decision-making capabilities. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion reaches businesses and consumers in 23 countries around the world.

Check out Credit Card Delinquencies article on our blog

By Laura Rowley

Researchers have found that people who create concrete mental pictures of their goals are more likely to save money for them. Here’s the story of one woman who looked into her own crystal ball, got a clear vision of what she wanted, and implemented a financial strategy that allowed her to achieve it. DailyFinance’s Laura Rowley shares the lessons learned along the way.

Click here to see video

by Ruth Mantell

Tough times call for tough meat.

Cuts such as brisket can be easy on a family’s budget, and that’s a boon during tight economic times.

“Forget filet mignon,” said Bryan Voltaggio, chef of Volt in Frederick, Md., and a ‘Top Chef’ finalist. “Short ribs, shoulder cuts can be much more luscious and much more hearty for your family, and make a really great presentation.”

Last week I bought a $25 brisket that, with a couple of potatoes, an onion and some spices, was enough for five generous portions. Preparation was easy and the meal required little attention during its three hours in the oven — a couple of particularly attractive traits for a home cook with a 4-month-old baby and only two hands.

Tougher cuts that cook for a long time may also put fretful parents at ease about food-borne illness.

“Some parents will feel that the meat is safer to eat for their kids, as typically they are braises which will be cooked over long periods of time, versus a lean, tender cut which you would want to cook at a lesser temperature,” Voltaggio said.

As families on a budget continue to feel financial stresses from the recession, here are some expert tips to help them eat healthy and delicious meals.

Buy in Bulk

Many parents are used to buying staples such as rice in bulk. But families with enough freezer space can also purchase proteins that way, Voltaggio said.

“Buying a side of cattle from a butcher, you buy it at a much cheaper per-pound rate,” he said. “You can specify how you like it. It’s a good way to stock up and buy at a comfortable price ahead of time. For a large family beef is a commodity.”

City dwellers with slim refrigerators can split such a large purchase with another family. When my mother, Nancy Mantell, an economist, was feeding her growing young family, she and another mother bought a lamb to share every couple of months.

“We were young and didn’t have that much money. It was cheaper to buy a whole lamb and have the butcher cut it for us rather than to buy it already cut at the grocery store,” she said. “We didn’t have a lot of freezer space, but we had enough for half a lamb.”

Use Every Scrap

I roasted a chicken a few days ago, and plan to make a pot pie with the leftovers.

Using every bit of your proteins is a good way to keep down costs, said Alicia Horton, executive director of Thrive DC, a homeless services provider that feeds almost 200 people a day. Thrive DC’s staff makes the most of the protein they have: “Not only stretching it, but also utilizing every scrap,” Horton said. “We have two chefs on staff and they are magicians.”

Acquiring enough protein for 200 people is always a challenge because it’s the more expensive part of the meal, Horton said. Donors may give a ham, but they rarely donate 10 hams, she said. To make use of all the available protein, Thrive DC has a buffet each week.

“It’s when we kind of clean house,” Horton said. “Anything that was left over for the week, smaller portions that may not suffice for an entire meal, we just have a big buffet and everybody can have a bit of what’s available.”

Cook Like You’re at Home

Pricey gadgets and exotic ingredients have a place, but it may not be your home.

Home cooks without loads of time and money may want to stick with straightforward family fare, said Art Smith, Oprah Winfrey’s former personal chef and co-owner of Chicago’s Table Fifty-Two, where the first couple celebrated Valentine’s Day.

“Don’t try to reproduce food from a restaurant,” Smith said. “Restaurants have a lot of special equipment, and it’s just not cost effective for a home cook.”

Glamorous ingredients can be a waste for a home chef. For instance, Voltaggio recommended that home chefs avoid truffles “unless you have a really reputable supplier and you know when truffles are in season. It’s a lot of money to invest in something like that and it’s definitely a luxury.”

Smith noted that many high-end ingredients are not necessarily healthy choices. “Foie gras tastes good, but it’s deadly fattening,” Smith said. “A little bit is good, but a little bit goes a long way.”

Buy Local Produce, Shop Around

Chefs recommend local produce for home cooks. “You can go to a great local market where they have great apples as opposed to trying to seek out something that is not as local,” Smith said.

Voltaggio said home cooks should take advantage of community-supported agriculture arrangements in which consumers buy seasonal produce directly from local farmers. Typically, a family buys a “share” of a CSA to receive weekly packages of seasonal goods.

“Some people look at CSAs as a luxury, but there’s really great value,” Voltaggio said. “Some farmers will overfill the baskets just because they have an abundance of crops.”

CSA consumers are essentially buying vegetable futures, Voltaggio said.

“Versus buying in the store, CSAs are typically cheaper,” Voltaggio said. “It’s a win for the farmer because you are guaranteeing his income, which will keep local agriculture alive. This is a good way to keep your money in your community.”

However, there are risks, such as inclement weather. Farmers can’t guarantee that consumers get exactly what they want every season. Also, CSA shares are limited, and you might be put on a wait-list.

Also, Smith said home cooks should comparison shop rather than trying to buy all of their food at one location.

“Everyone when they shop wants convenience. You can get everything at one market but you are going to pay more for it,” Smith said. “The only way you can ensure high quality at a better price is to shop around and be aware.”

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by AnnaMaria Andriotis

In search of diaper deals and cheaper milk, Erin and Chris Smith joined their local warehouse club. To their surprise, the Cary, N.C., couple found their biggest savings at the pump: They saved about $200 last year at the club’s filling station, which discounts fuel for members. Cheaper gas is becoming popular territory for warehouse clubs and supermarkets – a bigger play for customer loyalty, and a new opportunity to pad their own bottom lines.

Warehouse clubs and grocery chains are increasingly offering discounted fuel at their U.S. stores — often up to 10 cents or more per gallon lower than other stations a few blocks over. There are about 5,000 of these so-called “hypermarts,” up 37% over the last five years, with another 200 expected to open next year, according to EAI, Inc., which tracks the petroleum sector. About 70 supermarket chains now include fuel stations at some of their stores. But this growth in discount gasoline comes with a catch: To get the deal, customers usually have to spend a certain amount of money in the store, or they have to be warehouse club members – at $40 a year or more.

For their part, retailers barely profit from their fuel station sales, says Ron Santicola, a consultant focused on retailing and fuel distribution at Gerson Lehrman Group, a research firm. But it’s worth it: The lure of cheap gas leads customers to spend more money inside the stores, analysts say. That $200 Smith says she saved last year? It went right back to BJ’s (NYSE: BJ - News). “Instead of having hot dogs for dinner, we might have steak,” she says. For retailers whose in-store margins average 25% per product, even small additional sales can have a big impact, says David Livingston, an independent supermarket analyst.

Still, with gas prices up 9% this year, the savings can be significant. The average American household spends about $2,000 per year on gas, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; a $200 annual savings cuts that budget by about 10%. That’s money that could be saved, or used to pay down debt, or even have steak instead of hot dogs. To make these programs work for you, SmartMoney looked at three popular ways to get fuel on the cheap — and their potential savings and pitfalls.

1.  Loyalty Rewards at Supermarket

How It Works: Shoppers with the supermarket’s loyalty card are eligible for discounted gas – usually about five to 10 cents cheaper than nearby filling stations. Then it gets a little complicated: Customers can earn deeper discounts by spending more money in the store. The more they spend, the deeper the discount. In some markets, Kroger (NYSE: KR - News) customers who spend $400 in the grocery store can get a discount of up to 40 cents per gallon. On a 25-gallon fill-up, that’s a $10 savings.

The Downside: Loyalty programs – whether they net savings on gas, air miles or some other reward – tend to kill the comparison shopping instinct. When it comes to gas and groceries, consumers whose gas discounts are tied to store loyalty cards could end up paying more for grocery items that could be found cheaper elsewhere, simply to earn points for discounted gas, says Livingston. For example, Marci Loehner, a stay-at-home mom in Cincinnati admits that she barely comparison shops anymore, in order to maximize her loyalty points – and save $24 on gas each month. As a result, supermarkets can raise prices without customers noticing, or caring, Livingston says. A spokeswoman from Safeway (NYSE: SWY - News), which offers up to a 10-cents-per-gallon discount on gas to loyalty club members who spend $50 or more, says that product pricing and gas pricing are unrelated. Kroger declined to comment on pricing.

Who Wins: Families who buy several hundred dollars worth of groceries per month. They’re already spending enough to be eligible for the added gas discount, says Santicola.

2. Warehouse Club Membership

How It Works: Major warehouse clubs, including BJ’s, Costco (NasdaqGS: COST - News) and Sam’s Club, sell discounted gas at select locations, for typically five to 10 cents less per gallon than nearby service stations. The deal is offered only to club members, who pay at least $40 for their annual membership. Costco, which plans to open at least 12 more fuel stations in the next year, also offers 3% cash back on gas purchases for consumers who pay with a Costco-AMEX card.

The Downside: Consumers who sign up for a warehouse membership just for the gas savings aren’t likely to benefit quickly (unless they drive a lot). With an 11-cent-per-gallon discount, consumers would need to buy 364 gallons of gas to recoup the $40 Sam’s Club membership fee. Meanwhile, the discounts can change at any time, and they vary by location. Also, you won’t get much of a price break, if any, if your local club has another gas station on the same block, says Jason Toews, co-founder of GasBuddy.com. That station will usually try to match the discount that the warehouse club offers.

3. Gas Station Credit Cards

How It Works: Gas stations have teamed up with credit-card companies to offer branded credit cards that give generous rebates on gas purchases. The Gulf Platinum MasterCard (NYSE: MA - News) offers up to 3% rebates for gas purchased at Gulf stations and 1% everywhere else. And with Shell (NYSE: RDS-A - News), drivers who buy at least 45 gallons of its gasoline using their Shell card can save five cents per gallon on up to 100 gallons per month.

The Downside: For anyone who carries a balance on their credit card, the interest rate the card company charges will far outweigh the savings on gas. The APR on most of these cards (excluding any 0% promotional periods) is 13% or more; Shell’s proprietary card charges 24.99%. Fill a 25-gallon tank once a week and you’ll save $5, but if you don’t pay the entire credit-card bill, you’ll lose more than five times as much to interest charges.

Who Wins: Anyone who drives a lot, but fills up at the same kind of station. Because the chains are national, interstate drivers in particular may benefit – assuming they pay the balance each month.

Shop Local this Holiday Season

by Madeleine Scinto
Monday, November 14, 2011

provided by

There are lots of stupid ways to spend a dollar.

You could blow it on a bar of candy, which gives you a couple of minutes and gives you a bunch of empty calories.

You could buy a lottery ticket, which is in fact the equivalent of paying someone to take your money.

Or you could think outside the box and get something actually worthwhile.

Feed a Family in India for the Day

In poverty stricken countries, a little goes a really long way.

Although India is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, more than 25 percent of the population lives below the poverty line and the country battles enormous economic disparity. The poorest 10 percent of the country consumes 3.2 percent of the goods, while the richest 10 percent buy 31.1 percent, according to the CIA factbook.

Instead of throwing your dollar to the wind with the lottery, you could give it to an organization like Opportunity International that helps women start businesses to support their children or Garden Harvest, which helps rural Indian families buy goats and other animals.

Prepare a Vegetable Meal — and Better Support Your Local Farmer Too

Visiting your local farmer’s markets is not only fun and free, but lets you buy locally-grown, farm fresh produce for cheap.

Rogerk’s blog, a personal finance site, suggests you make a meal out of any one-dollar item you buy, and have some friends over try your “one-dollar menu.”

Another great reason to spend your buck at the farmer’s market is to support your local farming community.  It’s a way to reinvest the money you spend back into your town (much like Small Business Saturday).

To continue reading click here

More ideas on how to save this holiday season click here